When we build a football betting system, the parameters and variables that would serve as inputs to our system, are of great importance.
We are able to analyze the efficiency of the betting system in order to optimize it, based on these system variables. The desired goal is none other than the long-term profit.
However, system variables are often being misunderstood. The wrong choice of parameters is one of the reasons a football betting system could fail, resulting in losses. I have highlighted that earlier when I described betting systems in general.
Not surprisingly, this is also true when betting on football, which is a popular sport to bet.
However, I should not republish here what I have already explained previously in other blogs and websites. It makes good sense to start all over again in an effort to help the sports bettors as much as I can.
What can be used as system variables in football betting?
First of all, I must emphasize something. When I refer to the input variables of a football betting system – when we say “variables” – this does not necessarily mean mathematical terms and statistics.
[quote type=”center”]Input system variables can be anything, as long as they provide a selection criterion for our next bet.[/quote]
So, a system bettor could use the variable “weather.” For example, the variable “weather” could receive the values of “rain” and “no rain.”
By just using this parameter, we can immediately build our first rudimentary betting system on football. For example, if the weather is clear, we could bet on the home team. If the weather is rainy, we opt for a tie or in favor of the visiting team. This can be a very simple betting system. Nevertheless, after monitoring and recording the results of 100 or more bets based on this system, we will have some idea if this method could actually prove profitable in the future.
Of course, the larger the sample of results the better the prediction and confidence in our system performance. However, this is a topic that will keep us busy later on.
Now, suppose that, over time, we introduce another simple variable. For example, this can be the position that each team occupies on the football league standings table in regard to its performance. Consequently, if the home team is listed higher than the visitors’ team, we choose to bet on home win. Otherwise, we bet on draw or the away win.
Moreover, we may take into account the number of goals achieved by each team, betting accordingly.
Apparently, there is no restriction on what we can define as system variable on a football betting system, as long as we have good knowledge of what this data actually means.
For instance, input system variables can be:
- the playing strategy of each team on the field,
- how many key players are possibly injured,
- whether a team uses the reserve goalkeeper or not,
- if the betting odds plunge or soar during the last few days, or
- the scoring performance playing at home compared to visiting
Whatever we think that may affect the outcome of a football match (impossible to figure it all of course) may act as a system variable!
System variables picked. What’s next?
Following the selection of the proper system variables, it remains to assign the different weighting to each parameter. For example, 10 percent accounts to the weather, 40 percent to the injured team players and 50 percent to team’s form.
After keeping track of the result following each bet, we start experimenting changing each variable. Of course, for a time period, we bet with virtual money until we record a sufficient number of results on several matches, which will serve as our testing database.
Eventually, we will accumulate the necessary amount of data to optimize our system.
