FA Cup Top Goalscorer

Ahead of the FA Cup 3rd Round, The Guardian's Dan Roebuck identified some value to be had in the top scorer market this morning, picking out Leicester's Matt Fryatt at 28/1. This price has now gone, but it's worth considering the only other player to have scored four goals in the FA Cup so far, Scunthorpe's Gary Hooper, who's notched five in his last six games. At 33/1 you are getting 8/1 on the place part of the bet, which is decent considering four goals has been sufficient to secure a place in each of the last four seasons. Of course he is likely to share any placing with a number of other players (reducing any returns as 'dead heat rules apply') but at this price it's worth an interest.

3 pts each way Gary Hooper at 33/1, Skybet

Goal Machines

It's no wonder Austrian striker Marc Janko has recently been linked with both Blackburn and Spurs, as he's currently on an incredible scoring streak: since mid-October he has 18 goals in 10 appearances for club and country. For Salzburg this season the 6ft 5 hit man has 27 in 16 starts (2 subs) including five separate hat-tricks.

This form may see him leapfrog his similarly towering compatriot Stefan Maierhoffer in the national team's pecking order, although the former Bayern Munich reserve has 15 in 18(1) for Rapid Vienna himself, including 9 in his last 9 games.

Following Zaragoza's relegation, Diego Milito had the likes of Spurs pursuing him in the summer but choose to return to his old club, the somewhat lower profile Genoa. Milito is spearheading a successful campaign with 11 goals in 11 starts, including 6 in his last 4 matches. He looks a good bet at 4/1 to score this week as Genoa look to extend their 100% home record against promoted club Bologna.

Finally in the Bundesliga, the high scoring Wolfsburg have lost to injury their most prolifc striker in Brazilian Grafite. However his Bosnian striker partner Dzeko is now likely to be up front on his own, with a chance to continue his run of 7 goals in his last 7 games.

0.1 pts each way Lucky 15 of first goalscorers: Janko 9/2, Maierhofer 10/3, Milito 4/1, Dzeko 7/1 (now 13/2) with Bet365 (total stake 3 pts).

Sick Of It

Aston Villa seem to be everyone's second favourite team:

• the American owner who hasn't mortgaged the club to the hilt or spectacularly fallen out with his business partner;
• the charismatic manager who's forever the overachieving underdog and never quite gets the opportunity at the top table;
• the good but not great players who miss out on superstar billing, the (actually much sung) unsung heroes like Friedal, Laursen and Barry;
• a handful of England's next great hopes - a collective finger-crossing that Agbonlahor, Young and Milner do make good.
  

What with Spurs being too stupid, Everton too poor and Man City too rich, Villa are the best of the rest team it's OK to cheer on against the hated Big Four. They're even threatening to make a decent fist of European competition.

Getting a bit sickened by it all? Lay them in the Prem w/o Big Four market at 7/4.

Villa got off to their customary good start but, whilst they do have more depth than previous years, they will struggle to maintain this momentum through the whole season. In fact they already are, with defeats to Newcastle (away) and Middlesborough (home) in their last two league games. Whereas Everton, whose ill-equipped squad saw them begin the season fielding several largely unknown teenagers, have won three on the trot now they're back to something like full strength.

Meanwhile Spurs are enjoying a spectacular run during Redknapp's honeymoon, which has seen them beat Liverpool and City and draw with Arsenal. City themselves have been inconsistent - the current rumours over Hughes' future can't help matters - but represent something of a wildcard with the potential to spend big in January. And then there's everyone else. After twelve games only nine points separate fifth (Villa) from twentieth (WBA).

Aston Villa next four Prem fixtures: Arsenal (a), Man U (h), Fulham (h), Everton (a).

Premier League Without Big Four: 4 pts lay Aston Villa at 7/4, Betfair.

Pension Policy

AC Milan's move to loan David Beckham for a few months next year is probably a sensible one for both parties: Milan generate publicity and increase their global marketability, as well as possibly gaining some sort of cover for their key playmaker Andrea Pirlo; Beckham gets to train and perhaps even play at a top level rather than rot during the US off-season.

All the same it's hard to resist mocking (was it the lure of their high tech, zero-gravity treadmill - comes in handy with a squad of aged crocked, etc.). The signing encapsulates Berlusconi's brand of ownership, one of the grand populist gesture over shrewd acquisition. The Times quote President Galliani:

Running a football club isn't just about putting 11 men on the pitch and winning games, it's about creating and sustaining excitement, filling stadiums, generating sponsorship, merchandising and marketing. It's about having a bold idea.

The contrast could hardly be greater at Inter, where they continue to churn out titles, as Moratti was only too keen to point out.

In some ways Galliani's 'bold idea', embracing football entertainment rather than simply winning at all costs, is to be applauded. But what rankles is the thought that the few remaining years of the likes of Pirlo and Seedorf could be wasted due to the balance of the squad being neglected. Carletto can't have an easy job satisfying a disgruntled Seedorf who fins himself playing third fiddle to accommodate a glorified showpony, who deciding who is less of a liability between Phillipe Senderos, Giuseppe Favalli and a 40-year old Paolo Maldini.

A number of special markets were available surrounding the Beckham transfer, including one from Blue Square on what squad number he would be given. Seeing as Pato and Ambrosini wear no.s 7 and 23, it is highly probable that Beckham follows Flamini (84) and Ronaldinho (80) in taking the year of his birth. The bookmakers did have 75 as favourite, but at 5/2 yesterday it was too big - sadly I've missed this bus; backed in to 6/4 it's now been closed.

Meanwhile the Premiership this weekend sees perhaps one of the least glamorous match ups of recent memory, as two of the promoted teams meet when Hull City travel to West Brom. At the start of the season I took a small position against WBA, sceptical as to whether the attacking football that took the Championship by storm would translate into the top flight. But on what we've seen so far they look better equipped than several of the worst sides in the division, and it's a little surprising to see them as long as 13/10 to beat Hull. However the real value lies in backing Bedner, the lone striker in their 4-5-1, to open the scoring.

2 pts Bedner to score first at 7/1, Ladbrokes.

The Impossible Job

Viewing the recently repeated fly-on-the-wall documentary The Impossible Job (essentially 'Do I Not Like That' with added hindsight) was to relive some painful memories of one of England's darkest hours: Carlton Palmer in an England shirt; a national coach yelling at defenders to 'go long' like some Sunday morning pub manager; an international as fine as Des Walker so drained of confidence that he resembles a rabbit in the headlights of some fairly moderate opposition; and the embarrassing booing of a Taylor favourite - and one of the best players of his generation - in John Barnes.

Whilst undoubtedly unfortunate in the dramatic tailing off of big players (Woods, Walker), the loss of key players to injury (Pearce, Gascoigne, Shearer) and others a few years from the peak of their careers (Seaman, Ince), there were some horrid selections and, most of all, a rotten footballing philosophy more suited to maximising results of limited English teams than competing on the world stage.

One wonders precisely what the FA asked of the prospective national managers at interview. And although 1993 now looks light years away from the present day, have things really changed that much? When a coach who dogmatically refuses to play anything but a back four (whose first name isn't Johan) gets the job, it makes me wonder. At least Capello appears to have some willingness towards tactical flexibility, even if there are some traits worryingly reminiscent of Sven Eriksson - a man for whose tenure The Emperor's New Clothes could have been written. For the time being let's try to ignore the overwhelming feeling of deja vu as Emile Heskey reappears in the starting XI, Walcott's raw pace is prized over more mature footballing ability, and the perplexing and sentimental indulgence of David Beckham continues.

The jury is out.

The Rehabilitation of Serie A

Inter Milan won the title for the third year in succession last term. Having earlier led by some distance, they stuttered badly during the latter part of the season and only just scraped home from Roma in second place. However, Inter coped with a large number of injuries that would've crippled smaller teams - most notably Samuel, Cordoba, Viera, Dacourt and Figo missed large chunks of the season, latterly Ibrahimovic suffered too - whilst there was reported to be unrest within the squad and a rift between senior players and coach Mancini. The fact that they won the title at all was actually a very decent achievement.

The big news this summer was the arrival of Jose Mourinho. He swaggered in proclaiming a mission to 'rehabilitate the image of Italian football abroad' and wasted no time in reigniting a war of words with [57-year old] Claudio Ranieri with some typically outrageous remarks:

He has the mentality that winning isn’t crucial and at nearly 70-years-old he has just won a Super Cup and other small tournaments. He is too old to change his mentality.

Inter have strengthened an already impressive squad with the signings of Muntari, Mancini and Quaresma, as well as Adriano returning from Brazil - a huge boost if he gets anywhere near back to his best. The Mancini signing is a double whammy in that it simultaneously weakens rivals Roma at the same time as strengthening Inter, just as those of Dacourt and Chivu did in preceding close seasons. Another defensive injury crisis has already hit the Inter squad but they can deal with it. Better than Serie A defences can deal with the likes of Ibra, Adriano and Super Mario Balotelli (Cruz and Crespo could be doing a lot of bench warming).

What of their rivals? Roma are the best footballing team in the division, with some outstanding talents such as Totti and De Rossi. Meanwhile this could be the breakthrough year for Rome and Italy's next great hope, Alberto Aquilani. But financial constraints mean they've lost a star in Mancini and signed only a limited trier of a left back in John Arne Riise and the inconsistent Julio Baptista, players simply not good enough for a top European side. Their thin squad is vulnerable to sustain a challenge on all fronts.

Juve do have the squad depth having invested in the summer. But they needed to ahead of their first season back in Champions League action since their relegation on the back of the Calciopoli scandal. Very solid but ultimately not quite the attacking quality of Inter - creatively they will need Del Piero and Nedved to continue to roll back the years.

And then there's AC. Still a world class midfield and attack (fitness permitting) but badly in need of a quality goalkeeper and some younger defenders. So what did Berlusconi do? He signed Ronaldinho. The Ron-Ka-Pa Brazilian trio could be devastating if party animal 'Dinho and Kaka (still troubled by a gammy knee) are somewhere near their best, but with a lack of quality cover for the injury prone Nesta their Dad's Army of defence could leak goals almost as fast.

Fiorentina beat AC to the coveted fourth Champs League spot last year. A really good footballing team (some call them the 'Italian Arsenal') managed by the excellent Cesare Prandelli, they will again be strong. Expect a good season from Gilardino, who've the Viola have bought from Milan to partner Mutu. Still the best of the rest, ready to capitalise on another AC slip up, but a decent run in Europe could compromise their league credentials somewhat.

Elsewhere Sampdoria and Napoli - who gained draws with Inter and Roma respectively in week 1 - are contesting the Uefa Cup and should again be pushing for Europe, whilst Lazio may recover from a shambolic showing last term to reclaim a spot in the top 8. Lazio thrashed Cagiliari 4-1 in the first week and the latter are strong candidates for relegation following the departure of coach Davide Ballardini, who oversaw a rise from bottom to 14th during the second half of 2007/08.

4 points Inter to win Serie A at 2.26, Betfair
2 points Cagliari to be relegated at 2.75, Bluesq