First Impressions

Since Last Post P/L: £40.98

Monthly P/L: £40.98
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Celebrity Big Brother got underway last night and even though it may seem a little sad, the thought of all these prima-donnas arguing over the milk gets me excited. The line-up is a good mix of personalities but one in particular looks to have stolen the show already.

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Verne Troyer is best known for the role he played as Mini-Me in the Austin Powers series of films, and even though he only measures 2 feet 8 inches it seems he's been keen to explore other opportunities since the last movie 'Goldmember' was released in 2002. Gus from the Tellybetting blog has already pointed out that Verne has some form when it comes to reality shows and as I'm a big believer in first impressions I've decided to make a play after just the first show. I'm opposing the female contestants as voting usually goes the way of the males when the decision on who gets evicted gets put to the public. Here's my book as it currently stands:

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Tonight also sees the start of the NFL playoffs and as usual I've tried to predict the eventual winner of the Superbowl. Last year I did quite poorly so I'm hoping to rectify things over the coming weeks and the following rankings are how I see the teams at the minute based on them meeting at a neutral venue. The latest Betfair odds are in brackets.
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1. Pittsburgh (6.4)
2. Baltimore (16)
3. Philadelphia (16.5)
4. Indianapolis (12)
5. NY Giants (4.1)
6. Tennessee (7.2)
7. Carolina (7.0)
8. Minnesota (42)
9. Atlanta (36)
10. Arizona (65)
11. Miami (55)
12. San Diego (22)
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With the way the seeding system works it's not just a case of backing the top team, so after trying to decipher the outcomes of each game I've dutched the following teams:
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The big gamble is opposing Tennessee. I think they've flattered to deceive this season and even though they finished the regular season with a 13-3 record I can't see them pushing past the likes of Pittsburgh at this stage. They have afterall, lost 3 of their last 6 games. Famous last words eh?!?
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The PDC World Darts Championships also now rolls onto the Semi-Finals and how good was it to see Barney take out a 9 darter last night? He was on fire against Klaasen and the thought of him versus Taylor in the Final is a mouth watering prospect. I can't see Wade causing him too much of a problem on current form.
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I blew a bit of profit last night but at least I've started the year in a positive way:
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Darts
King v Bates : £25.54
Taylor v Stompe : £44.97
Nicholson v Wade : £49.73
Van Barneveld v Klaasen : £79.26
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Cheerio 2008

Since Last Post P/L: £641.21
Monthly P/L: £1,053.89
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With all the pre-tournament anticipation and media build-up it's very easy to get carried away during the first few matches of the PDC Darts World Championships, and that's exactly what I did. I should've known better as by the end of Day 2 I'd traded in 6 matches and dug myself a loss of just over £250. Needless to say my confidence wasn't very high and a different approach was needed. Yep, it was time to cut back on my stake sizes and to just concentrate on making a profit in each market. It sounds easy to say but in reality it's much more difficult to practice, so I had to remind myself that my strategy was sound and that it had produced good results in 2007. That's the problem with Darts - there are not an awful lot of televised events, and when there are the format is often different to the one before. Not ideal conditions when you're trying to perfect entry and exit points!

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Anyway, the following 28 events were a grind but I stuck to my guns and ended with a profit in 22 of them. The temptation once I'd started winning was to up the ante, but I resisted the itchy feelings and thanks to this discipline am now able to post a profit of over a grand for December. Here are my final results for 2008:

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Darts

Jenkins v Smith : £42.86
Painter v Clark : £86.72
Priestley v French : £4.01
Bates v McBrearty : £55.42

Tabern v Beaton : £120.19

Van Gerwen v Young : £146.77

Walsh V Cavern : £40.74

Dudbridge v Fulwell : £17.21

Mardle v Fatum : £24.04

Manley v Sulijovic : £25.35

Mason v MaGowan : £27.38

Kantele v Ilagan : £57.58

Lewis v Stewart : £13.51

Lloyd V Klaasen : £6.03

Baxter v Kantele : £30.40

Osborne v losper : £20.07

Sulijovic v Dudbridge : £63.57

Taylor v Van Gerwen : £6.46

Mardle v Thornton : £38.71

Davis V Bates : £151.70

Baxter v Ovens : £11.97

Klaasen v Van Der Rassel : £91.12

Van Barneveld v Newton : £18.07

King v Walsh : £90.32

Priestley v MaGowan : £35.10

Osborne v Van Der Voort : £5.42

Wade v Eccles : £82.26

Taylor v Painter : £36.99

Bates V Dudbridge : £29.53

Nicholson v Priestley : £76.33

Smith v King : £67.65

Mardle v Stompe : £75.09

Hamilton v Klaasen : £117.40

Van Barneveld v Baxter : £22.52

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From reading that lot it may seem that Christmas was cancelled in our house but I promise you that wasn't the case, as in total there's only about 24 hours work there. After the stress of Caden's operation we were determined to enjoy every minute of the holidays and that's what we did. Seeing his face on Christmas morning was magical and it really made us realise how lucky we are. No trading experience could ever beat that feeling.

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So that's it then, the end of 2008 and if I'm honest I won't miss it! But from a trading viewpoint how have things gone?

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My hope at the beginning of the year was to achieve a profit after commission of £15,000, but unfortunately I fell short. With the final figure ending on £11,938.86 I'm a little disappointed, but after all that's gone on I can't be too hard on myself. Afterall, I'm still only trading part-time and it does mean that I've been able to generate over £20,000 from my original bank of £250 during the course of the last 29 months. That's not a bad effort. However, the most satisfying bit of all this is that I haven't spent the lot! As some of you may be aware, I've always been keen to re-invest as much of my winnings as possible to enable me to play with bigger stakes as I move forward. This has continued throughout the year and my trading bank now stands at £18,216 - a healthy increase on the £8,346 that I started with last January. In case any of you are concerned that I may blow that lot in one go I'll make it clear that I only use a portion of it at any one time. My current maximum exposure is just over 13% which equates to a stake of £2,459. These trades only happen on sports where I feel I have my biggest edge e.g. Cricket, and when the odds fall between a certain price range e.g. 1.01 to 1.50. Managing my risk is vital if I'm to continue making money.

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So what does 2009 hold in store? Nobody knows, but I do have a few wishes and resolutions that I'd like to see come true from both a personal and trading perspective. First the serious one:
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1. That all my friends and family stay healthy. It's true what they say - without your health money means absolutely nothing. I'd really like a normal, uneventful year.
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Then the rest:
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2. Is a £20,000 target after commission being greedy? Probably, but I won't beat myself up if I don't get there. The important thing is that I keep growing. I have a few exciting ideas up my sleeve that I'd like to see turned into reality so watch this space ;-)
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3. I start using my blog more like blog. As I now I sound like I've lost the plot let me explain. Everytime I write a post I feel the need to go into detail about everything and write a bloomin' novel! I need to calm down, post more often and just record my thoughts. I don't want to record drivel but there are other things I'd like to get off my chest apart from my profit and loss. Watch out for me going into a 'Dear Diary' mode though!
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4. This last wish is something which is out of my control. Please, please Betfair don't look to extract any further fees from your successful customers. Just in case you're wondering. I don't class myself in this bracket, but I understand the damage that would be caused if these big fish left. I've gone into these reasons before so I won't repeat myself - so please Betfair, just don't do it.
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Okay, I think I've said enough :-)
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May I wish you all a Happy New Year and may the coming 12 months live up to your expectations.
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Ciao for now.
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