Talkbet

January 6th

Nothing new to post really, started a new contract yesterday so back to the grindstone :o)

Thanks again for the comment JP, nice to get some dialogue going on this blog! The levelling off has saved me this season in a couple of games. The big one being the Barcelona v Real Madrid game, for the sake of 5 quid I got out of a £150 loss and to be honest I'm probably in profit at the moment for my 'levelling off' of games. I don't do it to often, for instance on Saturday i watched the closing stages of the Preston v Liverpool game, I knew i had a -£40 hit on Liverpool if they scored again or +£80 if nothing else happened at 0-1. 10 seconds from time Liverpool broke away and got their second, not a major hit but if I could of been bothered to get off the sofa, get my laptop and level off I'd of saved that hit for the sake of a few quid. I think the odds at the end of games get very hazy and it's difficult to put an exact figure on the value I'm giving away, probably betting on a 7 or 8% chance as opposed to a 10% chance. The powerstats just aren't hitting the figures that, according to my findings, they should be so therefore I've got to bite the bullet and admit that something is wrong with my working out somewhere. This has gone back to a work in progress and I'll start trialling the new powerstats once I've reworked them.

Nothing much from The Form Analyst at the moment, the weather is obviously hitting the racing. Small win on Sunday and small(er) loss yesterday.

The in play app made a good recovery on Sunday night for a £17 profit. Fell over a bit last night though with a £31 loss, glad I've reduced the stakes!

January 4th

Well a full on nosedive for the in play football app last night, from a +£211 profit early evening, a series of nasty hits took all the profit away and a minus £1 loss on the day. It hasn't run mch today, I've had problems with my broadband connection overthe last few days and these have resulted in connections timing out to the Betfair API. It's run on a couple of games and is currently £76 down, can it turn around before the bank gets wiped ? :o)

Just the one tip today from The Form Analyst, 1.5 points each way. It traded 1.01 in running but finished second, feel my current poor run is rubbing off on his selections :o) Small loss on the day with the service for me then but could/should of been a decent day.

January 3rd

Back once again with the first post of 2009. Glad to say that it's going to be a positive one as well, December was a bad month for me but after a few days break (mainly due to lack of football this week) I've come back a bit more refreshed and positive.

I've halved my usual stakes for my in play app, I'd of liked them to remain the same but the truth is if I took a few days of bad hits over the weekend I'd of wiped my depleted bank out and I didn't want that to happen.

Today it's done well though and is currently £211 up, I also got it involved in the Cup games but at massively reduced stakes, the only downer is that if I'd run my app using usual stakes on all games then I'd probably be talking about a profit close to 1k :o)  Never mind, slow and steady is the way.

The Form Analysts picks have been a little up and down recently, it needs a good few days to recoup the losses I've had from it since I signed up, just hope the winning days come up before the next subscription is due....

Thanks for the comment JP. I rarely level bets off, I only do this if I happen to be watching a game and I want to enjoy the last few mins, it normally really is just the last few mins and if I've built up a max loss (was £150) on an outcome then I don't mind using 5 or 10 quid to get out of it at long odds. As you say, its probably not value but I do it for my stress levels :o)

So my current plans for 2009:

Keep with the lower stakes with the in play app and try and get the bank built up again ready to increase it back to usual stakes.

Rework the powerstats and paper trade them for the rest of the football season.

Keep with the form analyst and hope things pick up there.

Look into downloading a SQL database of horse stats from smartersig and start working on them to produce my own horse picks.

Continue using my valuestats application for trading in play football matches. Add an Over/Under 2.5 goals feature to it, log the odds into a SQL database and finally get it re-written in .Net or VB and possibly look at selling it on a monthly subscription basis.

Plenty to be getting on with there then.... :o)

December 31st

As each day starts I've normally got over games from the previous day but even now I'm still reeling from last night's Hull v Villa game. The in play football app had built up a max hit loss on Villa and I was just in the throws of levelling the bet off in the last few mins, I had a bet up and waiting to be taken next in line as they attacked....the cross comes over and a Hull defender pokes his leg out and the ball goes in, another late goal killing me.

On another market I'd built up a decent'ish green on Villa so in a fit of desperation I used that green and laid them in the tiny chance they'd let in an equaliser. In the die'ing seconds the ref awards Hull a pen for handball, I couldn't believe it, of course it was to good to be true and after consulting his linesman (and clearly both of them getting assistance from the 4th official) the ref then changes his mind and awards a goal kick. Talk about kicking someone while they're down. It sums it up for me really.

December has been a poor month for me, football has lost £650 although to be fair this should of been £480 less due to my total suicidal betting frenzy in the Everton v Chelsea game this month which cost me a small packet. 

Horse Racing is currently down £75 although The Form Analyst has had a good couple of days and is currently winning the money back from the poor picks at Christmas.

So another years ends, not the best of years for me, be glad to see the back of it. Betting is much the same as last year and the year before that etc.

Happy New Year to you all, lets hope 2009 brings a bit more reward for all the effort that I seem to put into this betting lark.

December 30th

Another bad day yesterday with Man Utd scoring their now almost obligatory single goal late'ish in the second half. They are making a real habit of this and it's cost me a fortune in recent weeks, all max hit losses. Only one other in play game yesterday and that was Wolves, they also managed to nick £20 off me leaving me with a gaping £205 loss for the in play football app on the day. Did a p/l for the last week on that account and it's down 1k, I've been here before with it and it has bounced back to recoup all the losses so just hope it does the same. I  wouldn't mind to much but my bank isn't big enough to sustain to many more losses like that, I'll have to look at reducing the stakes for it if I lose to much more.

Couple of selections from The Form Analyst yesterday, the one tipped to win came second and the one tipped Each Way came fourth (paid on first three), sums mine and The Form Analysts luck up at the moment.

As for trying to withdraw a bit of money each day to make up for not working well thats gone right out the window, going through such a bad patch at the moment and at such a crucial time as well!

Had some nice American Football tips this week though giving 4 out of 5 wins, a much welcome relief from other betting!

December 28th

Decent day in the end yesterday with the in play football app showing a £330 profit.

Today though, once again it has swung dramatically the other way, I never seem to have much consistency, the days either seem to be really good or really bad! A very nasty £520 loss today, this last week has been very costly with the in play football app. No games really stick out although Arsenals 81st min goal and West Hams 83rd min goal ensured two big max hit losses. Just wish I'd been one of those laying Blackburn at 1.01 (316k matched!) when they were 2-0 up at home to Man City, the game finished 2-2.

Just the one selection today from The Form Analyst and it proved to be a good one as well winning at 6's on the exchanges. I was advised to back it each way as well so that was a welcome return.

This year is going out with a bit of a whimper with regards betting, need a bit of confidence and enthusiasm to return!

December 27th

The day from hell yesterday. Well, a slight exageration maybe but you get the gist. Fratton Park was not the place to be (unless you are a Hammer), awful stuff and you must start to question whether Adams can really cut it as a manager.

Betting provided no respite. The powerstats took another caning and I've decided that enough's enough with them and am knocking them on the head. This season they have proved a washout and it's time to go back to the drawing board and come up with some new ideas, to be in a minus figure at the turn of the year is a waste of time as far as I'm concerned. I'll see if I can come up with some different ideas and paper trade for the rest of this season.

The in play football app also took a right pasting with the favourites coming out on top with no reply in the big Premiership games, the only game I made a bit of money back was Arsenal at Villa. All the other games just hoovered cash out of the account leaving me with a loss of £400 on the day.

The Form Analyst also had a mare with his selections yesterday, so that didnt help matters much.

Today has been a bit better although the Vittesse game could make a bit of a dent in the current £195 profit from the in play football app. Currently half time in that game so we'll see how the second half pans out.

The Form Analyst though has had the worst day ever I reckon and his selections all took a hammering, although to be fair a lot of the tipping lines out there have taken a beating today, take a read of JP's blog to see what I mean. Still early days for my Form Analyst account but it's showing a large loss at the moment and its going to take some serious good going to get things back on track.

December 25th

Quick post with tomorrows powerstats

Back  Portsmouth at home to West Ham at odds in excess of 2.2
Back  Tottenham at home to Fulham at odds in excess of 1.72
Back  Charlton at home to QPR at odds in excess of 2.62
Back  Ipswich at home to Birmingham at odds in excess of 2.62
Back  Peterboro at home to Millwall at odds in excess of 2.1
Back  Scunthorpe at home to Hartlepool at odds in excess of 1.72
Back  Barrow at home to Wrexham at odds in excess of 3.1
Back  Weymouth at home to Torquay at odds in excess of 3.0

December 24th

Nothing going on betting wise at the moment so Happy Christmas to the readers and fellow bloggers out there.

Back Boxing Day with some powerstats no doubt, can they turn the corner ? We will have to wait and see.....

December 23rd

For the first time in a long while the red mist (or rather blue mist) came down in front of my eyes last night. I went full tilt on my own judgement and piled in a big £200 (big for me anyway!) back of Chelsea at 1.8 midway through the first half. I was convinced they would win and I got seduced into the odds, I was also convinced they would score before half time. 10 minutes later Terry lunges in, gets sent off and Chelsea's odds soar out to 2.8. So no chance of getting out and as the second half started and Chelsea looking comfortable I even put aother £100 on them at 3.15.
To compound matters even more I was laying off and levelling up everything my automated in play app was doing, that was big red on chelsea so i made it smallish red on Everton, small green on Chelsea and nice green on Draw. To be fair, the £300 I had lumped on Chelsea was only £140 in effect due to my in play app, if the game finished 0-0 then I would end up £140 down. That's what happened in the end and instead of winning £340 from the game if I had just sat and watched it and let the app do all the work I was down £140. Another lesson learnt but not a massive loss, just an annoying one.

To be fair, my judgement was seriously clouded by losing £150 in an earlier Greek 2nd Div game, I was seriously determined to win that money back.

So a few more rules in place for me to follow. I'm increasing my betting stake for bets that I see as 'value' using my value app. My personal bet stakes though will be and MUST be limited to £25, no matter how much I need to win back or am convinced they'll win etc.

No in play football today and only a couple of race meetings so probably not much going on. Apart from my new Mercedes turning up at lunchtime that is :o)