Sophisticated sports betting requires developing your own betting system. By either testing your system on paper or with real money, you end up with a profit or loss. You also have a bunch of losing and winning bets in your database. And finally, you have a lot of questions:
- Is my betting system a failure, or have I run into bad luck?
- Is my betting strategy profitable in the long run?
- How much longer should I test the betting system before betting with real money/increasing the stakes?
- How likely is it that I’ve found a successful betting strategy?
- Are these bets adequate to confirm the strategy’s profitability?
This betting simulator will help you to find the answers.
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How to use the betting simulator
Before giving the tool a go, you should make some basic calculations, according to your betting system’s data and performance.
You’ll need to calculate and input these values:
Average Win/Loss: The ratio of your average winning bet and average losing bet. If you are betting on decimal odds, that’s your average betting odds minus one. So, if you are betting at 2.50 on average, the Win/Loss is 1.50.
Here’s another example. Say you have bet 100 times using a flat staking system. You ended up winning $1,000 by betting $100 on each selection. Half of those wagers ended up winners.
So, you made $6,000 in 50 bets and lost $5,000 in 50 bets. Your average win is $120. Your average loss is $100. Thus, your betting system’s Win/Loss ratio is 1.20.
Success %: Your system’s hit or strike rate. In other words, how many bets made you money, or how many tips/predictions proved correct.
After inputting the data above, you can click on execute and get your first trial. Usually though, that won’t be enough to come to safe conclusions. The variables below help to gain confidence in your system.
No. of Lines: The actual trials of your system. One line, one trial. 100 lines, 100 trials. Think of each trial as a different punter, betting according to your betting system. Try not to stretch this number too much, otherwise the tool might appear too slow when trying to plot the graph or even crash.
No. of Bets: The number of bets you are testing your system for. The higher the number, the more reliable the final result. Avoid taking this number to the extremes, unless you minimize the trials (i.e. number of lines). Again, if you insert a big number here, the tool may get laggy or crash.
These numbers will guide you when it comes to the most effective staking plan you should apply to your betting system.
Kelly %: The staking plan according to full Kelly. This is calculated automatically by the tool, according to the input data. Read more about the Kelly criterion in online betting here. As a tip, never bet more than half Kelly, no matter how confident you are.
EV: Your expected value or win per bet. This is calculated automatically by the tool. Think of it as the amount of money each bet stands to win in the long run. So, for instance, if EV is 0.10 and you bet $100, your expected profit, in the long run, should be $10, no matter the outcome. If EV is a negative number, your system is not making you money.