us open preparation trading class tomorrow at 10:30 uk time a trading class will be given to readers if you like to join mail: rc.177@hotmail.com in advance
Apologies again for lack of updates, I'm probably at the stage where I'm thinking "it's pointless posting, all I'm going to say is system A made £x, system B lost £x" etc. Then I find myself driving along and thinking "ah yes, I'll mention this and that on the blog", then I sit down with a blank box in front of me for the post and find my mind is as blank as the box in front of me :o)
So anyway, lets go over my systems and get them up to date. The X5 Horse Trading App has been ticking over, it's currently up £11 since last Wednesday so nothing to get to excited about really. Happy enough to just leave it going. After it's horrendous start to the month (following on from last months horrendous finish!) it's down -£441 so very little chance of getting that back level really. We'll see how the small stakes go with it, it's certainly less stressful.
The Carrera Football App has had a really good time of late. Currently up £374 since last Wednesday.
I'm still going through all the horse and bookmaker data (it's been running now since last November so there's a fair old amount of data there!) but am struggling to really make much headway with it. I'm going to start breaking it down to different racetypes and times of year. I'm looking for major movements in the volume & odds traded, its difficult doing that without 'backfitting' it too much.
I also plan on sending out an email to all the DB9 Football Selections subscribers with a general overview of the system, there won't be any selections for a few weeks yet though. Need to get up to speed with the mailing list though just so there's no hiccups once we get up and running.
I see The Premier League kicked off this weekend with Chelsea winning 6-0, yawn. It seems to me that the gap between the top clubs in the Premier League and the lower clubs is now greater than the lower Premier League clubs and the top of the Championship. Maybe I'm just bitter about the whole Premier League thing ;o)
Thats about me up to date, no doubt when I click the 'Publish' button I'll remember the whole stack of things I was going to say.
How multitabling and rakeback affects winrate in poker strategy
Playing at 6 poker tables with a winrate of 3BB/100 is the same as playing at 12 tables with a winrate of 1BB/100. That means that if you double the poker tables you play simultaneously, you don't need to play that well in order to make the same amount of money in the same duration of time. On the contrary, if you halve the number of poker tables you multitable, you need to triple your winrate, meaning to improve your poker skills by a factor of 3. The above is true only if we take rakeback into consideration.
Before I prove why the above statements are true in poker strategy, I need to pinpoint the importance of rakeback. Rakeback is usually a percentage of the rake a poker player is paying to the poker room. That percentage varies according to the rakeback deal and the poker room, but an acceptable figure is about 30%. 30% rakeback more often than not is equal to a winrate of 1BB/100 at 6-max tables. In simple words, if a poker player is breakeven, he would still make money due to rakeback. That amount of money would be 1BB per 100 playing hands. For example, if I would play at 200NL 6-max tables and broke even over 500,000 hands, I would have made $20,000 exclusively due to the rakeback deal. Another important detail is that BB stands for Big Bet and not Big Blind, that is double the Big Blind known also as PTBB (PokerTracker BB).
A poker player is playing 6-max tables No Limit Hold'em poker and his poker strategy aims to play 50,000 hands per month. He is only playing on working days and can play competitively up to 6 tables at once. On average a 6-max table provides 100 playing hands per hour, so he needs to play 4 hours a day for 22 days in a month. In the end, since his winrate is 3BB/100 and his rakeback is about 1BB/100, he will win 2,000BB or 40 buy-ins in the end of the month.
Consider now the same poker player who decided to double his monthly hands. He doesn't want to play more days or more hours, but he is willing to sacrifice his winrate. Playing more tables would mean that he won't be able to pay close attention to the opposition, would have trouble taking detailed notes and some of his hands would be auto folded since he would time out occasionally. All these would definitely have an impact on his winrate. How much impact should his winrate sustain before he makes less money than before?
He is now playing 12 6-max NL tables at once, 4 hours per day, 22 days per month. In order to make 40 buy-ins in 100,000 hands, he needs to win 2,000BB, so a winrate of 2BB/100 is acceptable. Again rakeback is 1BB/100, therefore he only needs to win 1BB/100 and he would make just the same amount of money as before.
Assuming he improves his poker skills and manages to adapt to the fast paced game now that he plays double the number of poker tables, a winrate of 3BB/100, added to 1BB/100 of the rakeback, would win him 4,000BB, or 80 buy-ins. Tripling his winrate would just double his winnings.
Let us now assume that the player decides to go back to playing 6 tables simultaneously and focus on improving his poker game a lot more. In the beginning he was winning at a 3BB/100 winrate and he is now pushing himself to the limit for a 6BB/100! Winning 6BB/100 with a 1BB/100 rakeback over 50,000 hands in a month, would win him 3,500BB or 70 buy-ins. Compare it with 3BB/100 winrate playing at 12 tables and you can immediately understand why improving your multitabling skills is more important than improving your poker skills! Additionally, consider the huge winrate's improvement from 3BB/100 to 6BB/100, which would not be sustainable in higher stakes for sure.
In conclusion, adding more poker tables and playing worse could make a poker player more money, than improving his poker skills and not playing more tables at the same time. Another important conclusion is that rakeback has a huge effect on the winrate of a poker strategy.
If I told you about a team who had Premier league form in 2010 that was behind only Man Utd and Chelsea (W11, D6, L2) and among those 11 wins were victories over both of the top two, would you be interested in buying their season points below, say, 70? They've essentially kept their squad intact over the summer, have seen key players sign up to long-term deals and head into the season with no serious injury concerns whatsoever. They aren't even in any European competition that might drain their energy either. They are, of course, Everton.
In the last three years Everton have finished with 65 (Moyes' best haul, in 2008), 63 and 61 points, to finish 5th, 5th and finally 8th. Each of the last two seasons have involved poor, injury-hit starts that have seen the subs bench full of relatively unknown teenage reserves. Such a fiasco looks like being averted this time around. The feeling is that this is the best chance this settled group of players will have to make a mark before age, injuries and departures weaken them. Rodwell a year older, Bilyaletdinov a year more adapted, but Cahill, Arteta and Pienaar still close to their peak - we can expect them to beat a quote of 62.
4 pts buy Everton points at 62, Sporting Index
Another fairly unfashionable - and often downright ugly - Premier league team is Stoke City. But last season they proved that their first foray into the Prem was no honeymoon, improving to 47 points after 45 in 2008/09. They also improved their away record, after being incredibly reliant on home form in their first season in the top flight. Their accurate aerial bombardment made many teams (Everton among them) look like a bunch of jittery pub players, but alongside the organisation and work ethic are a few players of quality such as Shawcross, Etherington and Fuller. Stoke are no poor relation - always with money to spend, demonstrated by the recent signing of Kenwyn Jones. He looks ideal for their style of play, and shifts the goal burden from Fuller, Sidibe and Tuncay. And if Jones' arrival heralds the departure of out of favour James Beattie, so much the better. The league may have got slightly harder with City's continued strengthening, but there is no reason why Stoke cannot repeat a mid-40s points haul of the previous two years.
a long time since the last blog entry. I am sorry, but at the moment I do not have much time to write about my betting stuff.
As mentioned so often, I do not want to bore you every day with figures how much I lost or won.
I totally stopped manual trading on Betfair. No tennis, no football, no Formula 1. I concentrated on working on the betting bots and it seems there is an edge for me. The semi automated version of HorstBecker is running really well at the moment. I had a really long run of up and downs before I identified a bug in the source code. I am really glad I found it, because results changed a lot in my favour with the new version of the software. Currently I am up for this month 152 points!
I've sorted a graph out to show The Rise And Fall (tenuous link there with the title for the older readers....) of the X5 Horse Trading App.
To be fair, it only really started struggling when I increased the stakes probably way beyond the amounts that the early markets could handle and my trades started sticking out like sore thumbs. Since I've reeled the stakes right back in things have picked up again, a small'ish loss of -£43 on Monday but then a decent £105 profit yesterday. That's about it for that app now I think, I've done all the tinkering I can with it, it's now back to simple basics and seems to be doing well, time to leave it alone and move on to something else :o) I've finally got round to downloading all the data for the last couple of months for my horse data as well as the Betfair SP's, thats my work for tonight, time to get the automated XKR horse selection service back up and running.
The Carrera Football App is still going well. £92 profit on Monday and a small -£26 loss last night. Once again, the smaller stakes means less stress and less chance of 'market spooking'.
I had a heated debate here with some other work colleagues the other day, a lot of them are into their financial trading and the other day I threw the "dead cat bounce" saying into their conversation as a bit of a joke, they then started questioning me about me being a trader (I'd also lent one of them my Way Of The Turtle book). I then explained that I traded sports markets, "HA! you mean gambling!" was the outcry, if ever there was a head in hands moment this was it. I tried to convince them that trading sports markets and trading financial markets were really no different, we were both looking for value in our trades and looking to get in and out and the optimum times, strangely enough they couldn't see it......
No not about betting but about my jaunts ooop North and staying in a B&B. I booked in somewhere for last night and tonight and spoke to the owner on Friday, told him I'd be there at 11pm, he said this wouldn't be a problem and that he'd leave the key under a 'pottery cat' by the front door. So I rock up at 11pm last night after a 4 hour drive and search around, I find the cat but no key! With no option, I rang the doorbell only to be met by easily the rudest bloke I've ever had the misfortune to meet in my life! He launched into a tirade of abuse about turning up at that time and wouldn't let me get a word in, eventually I told him that we'd spoken on the phone on Friday and that he'd leave the key under the pottery cat, he denied all knowledge of this!! It turned into a full blown argument before he then stuck his finger in my face and asked "do I want to stay there or not?", by this point I was never going to set foot in there so obviously I said no and asked for a refund, he then turned and slammed the door in my face! Unbelievable! I've read through a lot more reviews of his B&B and it seems he's like that to a lot of the guests, I've contacted my credit card company and opened a dispute, we'll see what happens...Luckily there was a HolidayInn Express up the road and I booked in for the night there instead.
Anyway, just had to get that off my chest :o) The X5 Horse Trading App had another stinker on Saturday with a -£201 loss so things had to change. It's time to go back to basics with it and try again. I've reeled the stakes right back (with the logic that the money I'm putting into the market is too much and I'm not getting matched on the good trades) and switched off my stoploss (with the logic that stoplosses were only getting matched sometimes and the bad trades were disappearing off into the ether). Better day for it yesterday with a profit of £76, only time will now tell though with it although I do plan on logging some more info to see if I can spot any reasons for the more profitable trades.
The Carrera Football App has had a solid enough weekend with a profit of £97 on Saturday and £5 Sunday. I'm really starting to think that plenty of apps running low stakes is the way forward rather than a few big decent stake 'killer' apps to try and bring the cash in.
So Portsmouth come away from the courts now free from administration and ready to start afresh, whether that's with a new owner or the same owner that put is into administration (go figure?) is another matter. Just glad it's all behind us now, everyone Pompey fan I know is sick of the whole thing, noone discusses buying or selling players anymore, it's the finer points of business liquidation and administration that get talked about on the message boards these days. At least tomorrow sees the chance to turn our attention to the stuff on the pitch with the return of the football season.
The DB9 football selections as well as the Powerstat selections will start appearing after a month or so, it takes that long for any meaningful form criteria to start kicking in. I'll be sending out an email to the DB9 Football Selections emailing list some point soon though, just to check we're all ok with it.
As for my betting systems, well the X5 Horse Trading system is in major freefall. This is a big disappointment, I created this app to try and bring a small steady upward line into the profits but it's proving to be far from that after the last couple of weeks. I'll sort out a graph for it at some point. Wednesday saw a loss for it of -£40 and this was only due to a couple of big wins in the last couple of races in the day, so I went through some of the trades and changed some of the criteria for placing a trade, I wanted to cut out the trades that were costing too much money, in doing so I knew I'd also lose out on some of the bigger winning trades, I also changed the stoploss to a bigger degree. The ammended version was ran yesterday and resulted in a further loss of -£30, to be fair yesterday had a trade not get closed off which cost about £60 so I could argue that yesterday was a successful day trading wise. Obviously I'll be leaving this app to continue running, it could be just going through a very rough patch.
The Carrera Football App had it's first bad day for a while on Wednesday with a loss of -£120 but then came storming back yesterday with a very welcome return of £186. I'm quite happy with it's max liability of £20 at the moment and more than happy with the way it's been performing after it's last major service.
That's probably it from me now till next week so have a good weekend and good luck to your teams for the start of the new season (I know the Premiership doesn't start till next weekend but that's not proper football ;o) )
A few suggestions to consider for anyone looking for a pre-season accumulator before tonight's kick off:
Chelsea or Man U to win the Prem (best prices of 17/10 and 11/4 respectively) - painfully obvious but decent prices given their recent superiority over the rest.
Wigan to be relegated (9/4) - likeable footballing team looking increasingly vulnerable.
Reading to be promoted from the Championship (4/1) - fine form in 2010, largely kept team intact.
Morecambe to be promoted from League Two (4/1) - solid, no frills outfit to go one better than last year's 4th?
Luton to win the Conference (2/1) - met one too good last season, strengthened in summer.
Lille to win Ligue 1 (12/1) - young, exciting team, kept all their stars from last season's top-scoring 4th place finish (more here).
Inter to win Serie A (11/10) - best squad by a country mile. Benitez can't mess this up, can he??
Real Madrid (5/1) or Chelsea (13/2) to win Champions League - two teams closer to Barca than odds suggest. Mourinho & Ancelotti aren't bad either.
For example: Man U, Reading, Luton, Lille & Chelsea is available at around 4250/1 with VC or 4225/1 with Betfred. And it's more fun than premium bonds.
"You?re neither right nor wrong because other people agree with you. You?re right because your facts are right and your reasoning is right?and that?s the only thing that makes you right. And if your facts and reasoning are right, you don?t have to worry about anybody else." Warren Buffett
Yes, I know, you've been eagerly waiting for it after last season's near misses and successes! Here we go....
Premiership.
Main Bet: Arsenal to win at 7/1 (VC / Tote).
Did you honestly expect anything else? No, seriously this must be their year. With no significant losses other than Gallas and excellent additions in Chamakh and Koscielny, to say nothing of the improvements in the likes of Wilshere and Frimpong, Nasri looking really sharp, it's now or never. Yes they need an additional defender and another goalkeeper...but the price has to be taken. Fingers crossed for fewer injuries than normal!
Other markets: Sam Allardyce to be the first manager out of his position at 20/1 (Corals). The odds simply don't make sense, he's been moaning about a lack of money in recent months (more than normal!), the squad looks quite thin and a poor start could easily see him walk away. I think 6/1 would be nearer the correct odds.
Lay Man City at around 1.64 to be top 4 on the betting exchanges. A quite ludicrous price (should be around 2.5), they have been spending huge money on average players simply because they can. Very little real quality in the side, Spurs finished ahead of them on merit last season, and could do so again, as could Liverpool and possibly even Everton. You are getting 6/4 that one of them finishes ahead of them, as it is inconceivable that they can be higher than 4th. The fact that they are shorter than Arsenal is one of the biggest jokes in betting history.
Everton to win the Premiership on the handicap with a 24 start at 15/1 with Corals or Bet 365. I expect a big improvement from them this year, they finished the season well and with no European distractions and hopefully far fewer injuries can make a serious challenge for the top 6, if not higher.
Championship
A case could easily be made for about two thirds of the sides! I'm going to go with QPR at 12/1 with several firms, mainly because of their manager Neil Warnock, who, love him or hate him (I'm personally nearer the latter than the former!) knows the division inside out and what it takes to get out of it.
Other markets:
Leeds to be relegated at 12/1 (Ladbrokes / Tote). I can't understand this price other than it's a classic case of a side being priced on name only. They literally fell over the line when winning promotion on the last day of the season and in such a competitive division full of sides which will be pushing for promotion, these odds are at least double what they should be.
Crystal Palace to win the handicap +28 at 18/1 (Corals). A bit of a surprise maybe, but I expect a big improvement from a side who only stayed up on the last game of the season, with worries about their future hopefully a thing of the past and a manager in George Burley who has a lot of experience and can steady the ship. Mid table is well within their capability and it could be enough to land the bet.
League One
No prizes for originality, but Southmapton look head and shoulders above the rest at a general price of 12/5. I was planning to do them from February, they finished like a train and with decent additions and very few realistic contenders. Whilst the price is a bit of a disappointment, it would be a big shock not to see them take the title.
League Two
Main Bet: Wycombe to win at 11/1 with several firms. Almost managed to pull off the impossible and stay up last year, they have recruited well and can finish ahead of the pack.
Other markets:
Burton to win the handicap +20 at 18/1 with Bet 365. This isn't actually my bet, more of a tip from someone who knows his stuff and is expecting a strong showing from the side. I'll take the credit if it does well and he can shoulder the blame if it flops :D :D
Best of luck for the season, and hopefully you should have a few winners from the above!
Carrera Gearing Up Nicely For The New Football Season
Morning all. Really good to see plenty of people signing up to the DB9 Football Selections, you'll have to bear with me while I get to grips with the automated mailing system, I think it's working ok though. The automated signup mails need a bit more padding out but they're functional enough. Obviously we won't have any selections for a while yet, it'll take a good few weeks after the season starts before we start getting any selections flagged up, I'll put a mail together though before then and check we're all receiving everything ok.
Onto other matters and my other systems. The Carrera Football App continues to do well after it's recoding last month and yesterday brought in £42. I'm starting to come round to the idea that small stakes are the way to go, the higher your stakes the more chance of someone else (or another app!) jumping in front of you, when people see the odd £2 or £3 flying about they don't think too much about it, if they see a few hundred quid in a quiet market then chances are someone will put their £2 in one tick further up (or down...!).
The X5 Horse Trading App is the opposite of the X5 at the moment, after Mondays welcome return to profit after a torrid few days, yesterday was back to a bad losing day with a hit of -£272. I've gone back over my spreadsheet and the X5 app's been running now since March (I never realised it had been running that long from memory) and to be honest it's had these sticky patches before. It's now had 4 losing days in the last 7 and that's not uncommon, it's happened a few times before. So all is not lost just yet with the app, the next few days will decide whether I take the approach of the Carrera App and bring the stakes right down.
Keep meaning to mention that all my apps are now running from my server with 1and1. I had a bit of trouble getting ASP to talk to the MySQL database on the server as the server is Win2k 2003 and it needed a hotfix installed to sort the problem out. Apart from that, it was all very easy and only took about an hour to get the apps running (the ASP side of things is just a few webpages so I can see what the apps are up to during the day without logging on to the server). No crashes or unscheduled reboots as yet but I'll keep you all posted if anything untoward happens.
The DB9 Football Selections are a new project for the football season 2010/2011. They are based upon the highly successful Powerstats but have been coded to be more select.
It became clear that Powerstats, although successful, was producing too many selections for most people to follow. The DB9 Football Selections should produce a lot less predictions and by signing up to the email list you will receive the predictions as soon as I send them out. The DB9 Football Selections will not be posted on the blog, although I will keep people posted on how the selections are going.
No e-mail addresses will be shared with any third party companies, by signing up to the DB9 Football Selections you agree to receiving them by E-Mail in your inbox. You are free to unsubscribe at any time by following the unsubscribe instructions in the emails.
Things looking a bit better today. The X5 Horse Trading App is currently on +£150 and the Carrera Football App is on +£93, still a few hours to go though so things could still change. Funny how the last race of the day always seems to be either a big winner or big loser, any logical ideas out there anyone ? Could it be as obvious as punters having one last chance to chase their cash back for the day and the prices fluctuating wildly because of this effect ?
Just messing around trying to add a page for the emailing list sign up. I might look at changing the look of the site as well, apologies if things look a bit messed up for a while!
Went out for a curry last week, second time we've all been taken out for a freebie drinks and curry night out in the 4 weeks I've been here (*Note to previous employers that this place knows how to look after it's contractors ;o) ). Anyway, this does lead somewhere so stick with it, at the table the subject got round to gambling, "I'm into laying" one bloke chimed up, "have you seen it?" he asked, everyone just looked blankly. "Made £80 laying Tiger Woods a few weeks ago", then he sat back obviously quite pleased with himself. I sat there wondering whether to start questioning how he defined Woods was a value bet, whether he looked at greening up across the board or just kept all his red on Woods, whether he had a stop loss in mind etc. I decided discretion was the best option and stayed quiet. I dont know why, I rarely discuss what I get up to on the exchanges with other people, most of the time it seems more trouble than its worth trying to explain my views on value prices or back/lay strategies, anyone else find this as well ?
The Premier League went goal crazy last season, with 1,053 goals scored at an average of 2.77 per game - compare that to the previous four: 942 (2.47), 1,002 (2.63), 931 (2.45), 944 (2.48). Hence whereas 20 goals is often enough to top the scoring charts, and high teens will guarantee a top five place, during 2009/10 five players scored over 20 Premier league goals:
Drogba 29
Rooney 26
Bent 24
Tevez 23
Lampard 22
leaving Torres and Defoe in sixth place with 18 each.
Those usual suspects, plus Robin van Persie, head the market for the new season. Whilst these big names of course merit favouritism, here are reasons why you might oppose some of them:
Chelsea had an exceptional season, scoring an incredible 103 goals. They cannot be expected to repeat that feat. Drogba himself had an exceptional year - in six seasons at Chelsea that is only the second time he's exceeded 12 league goals, generally due to injury restricting his playing time. Aged 32 the chances of missing out through injury increase.
Lampard tends to get 8-12 goals from open play plus several penalties. Last year he got those 12 plus an unusually high 10 penalties to total 22 goals. A consistent performer with a history of remaining injury-free (albeit he's also 32 now) you could do worse than the 33/1 each-way, but I think there's better available.
Wayne Rooney finally delivered the glut of goals we've always known he was capable of. The departure of Ronaldo freed him from occasional left-wing duties and he became the focal point of their 451. However, the arrival of Javier Hernandez this summer indicates Rooney will at times play more of a no.10 role this term.
Likewise Tevez enjoyed the most prolific season of his career, but he also filled his boots most notably in the absence of striker partner Adebayor. With no African Nations Cup this season we can expect City's goals to be shared around more.
Torres and van Persie are both too injury-prone to be trusted at short prices. Torres' goals:games ratio in the Prem is phenomenal (56 in 69 starts and 10 subs appearances) and the lack of Champions League for Liverpool is a positive, but in each of the last two seasons he's only managed 20 league starts. His World Cup traumas and subsequent injury do little to raise hopes. Meanwhile Van Persie has struggled even more: just once in six seasons has he started more than 50% of Arsenal's league programme.
The negative on Defoe is that he could be hampered by Spurs competing in the Champions League, providing they qualify. If they do, the squad is bound to be rotated, with Robbie Keane taking more of his league playing time than before.
At the current prices my preference is again for Darren Bent each-way at 20/1, after he was flagged here on that basis last year at a juicy 50/1. At Sunderland he doesn't suffer from any serious competition for his place or threat of rotation, and tends to play a full 90 minutes most weeks unlike, say, Defoe. Sunderland are also a team who are open to improvement on last season in a way that the likes of Man U and Chelsea are not. Much like the player himself, it's not the most exciting or flashy proposition, but it is solid.
Further down the list perhaps a case could be made for Adebayor (33s), from whom we expect improvement on last season, and Saha (50s), who scored 10 league goals by the end of 2009 but then dried up, as possible each-way shots. My eye is caught, however, by Coral's 200/1 offered on Stoke's Ricardo Fuller. Alright so he did only net 3 times in the league last season. But that is a little misleading given he registered 5 goals in cup competitions. And the year before scored 11 in 25 starts (+9 sub) in the Prem. It's a generous each-way price, now we just need Wigan to stop conceding bucketloads to Defoe, Drogba and co. Good luck with that.
Apologies once again for the lack of updates, I just don't seem to have much spare time at the moment. Let's get straight into the action then with a synopsis (good word) of how everything's been performing.
Well, the X5 Horse Trading App seems to have gone on full tilt recently and is now a major concern. Last month was a frustrating month as I tweaked bits of code with it causing other bits to break etc. I got it running smoothly towards the end of the month though and the results seemed to suggest that everthing was running ok. Then Friday (29th July) saw a worrying hit of -£345, it's worst day for a long time. No worries though I thought, it has days like this from time to time, Saturday then went down as well with a loss of -£211 and to cap it all Sunday then joined in with a loss of -£364. Ouch. Loss of almost £1k in 3 days, very very depressing as I thought that the X5 app was going to be a good consistent earner. So anyway, onto today and we'll see how it goes, another big loss for it and we reel the stakes right back I think. Just for the record, July showed a loss of -£503 for the app.
Paranoia always kicks in when things like the above happen to me. The app has been running fine for months now and looking back at the daily results I have got nothing like that run of results happening before, just nice gradual daily profits with the odd blip. This is where the paranoia kicks in, my mind starts racing that someone else out there has spotted what I'm doing on the exchanges and has now built a app to outwit my one...or someone at Betfair has been watching my account and is now undercutting me or somehow getting their money first in the queue.....
Back to a dose of reality. The Carrera football app has come on really well since it's relaunch. It ended down for July only -£30 and that was after a poor start and the recoding of it (again). It brought in £224 since it's relaunch for the last couple of weeks in July and that was with staking based at minimal £10 rising to £20 maximum liabilities. I'll run it through August at £20 liabilities (£71 profit yesterday for the first day of the month) and see where we are at the end of the month.
I managed to have a bit of success in the cricket between England and Pakistan with a £30 profit. I was listening to the radio on the way home on Friday and England had just been skittled out in the morning losing a lot of wickets, Jack Bannister (on TalkSport) was of the opinion that the wicket was awful and we would see a lot more wickets go especially how Pakistans batting line up was nothing to worry about really. So I looked at the odds quick on my iPhone and stuck £100 on England at 1.49, the wickets all duely came and I greened up across the board only a few hours later at 1.09.
That's about my lot for now, I'll try and write more when I get a chance this week.
Playing at 6 poker tables with a winrate of 3BB/100 is the same as playing at 12 tables with a winrate of 1BB/100. That means that if you double the poker tables you play simultaneously, you don't need to play that well in order to make the same amount of money in the same duration of time. On the contrary, if you halve the number of poker tables you multitable, you need to triple your winrate, meaning to improve your poker skills by a factor of 3. The above is true only if we take rakeback into consideration.
