Betfair graphs show the odds movement of an event. If many bettors back a team or a competitor, the betting odds will shorten and we profit by trading the trend. What about the final result of the game? Can Betfair graphs really predict the final outcome of an event? I believe so and I have a couple of examples to prove that.
My latest experience regarding predicting final results with the help of Betfair Graphs was the night of the Oscars 2010. A week ago I had posted in my sports blog an article where I did basic technical analysis on the Betfair graphs of popular nominations. Although most of the favorites won and was not that difficult predicting wins of The Hurt Locker and the like, what surprised even myself was my prediction on the Foreign Language Film category. To quote from my original article: “To be honest it is an [Academy] award where an outsider might surprise us all and take down the first place. I’m talking about El Secreto de Sus Ojos which although is in third position considering the betting odds, the betting graph seems promising. The White Ribbon’s odds are drifting since the beginning of the betting and Un Prophete’s odds do seem uneasy trending in a channel. A small bet on El Secreto de Sus Ojos might be worth the risk! The odds at the time paid 5 times the original bet. A nice win without knowing anything about the movie or the latest news! Just by simply looking at the Betfair graph.
Long term Betfair trading has led me to recognize common betting patterns and although a Betfair trader can make money out of them, they eventually help to predict the final result of each event. Examples include Champions League cup, European Basketball cups, political events like US election and Greek election, reality shows like Big Brother and so on. By applying elementary technical analysis on Betfair graphs not only are we able to trade profitably and profit before the event comes to an end, but also we can correctly predict the winner in most cases.