Formula 1 visits Monaco this weekend and qualification results place Mark Webber at the pole position, as Michael Schumacher – the fastest driver on Saturday – is serving a 5-place penalty he picked up in Spain. Meanwhile betting on Romain Grosjean to win the Monte Carlo race has been really interesting with several technical analysis’ formations pointed out on his odds’ graph. The Swiss F1 driver managed the second fastest lap in the first 2 practice sessions but dropped to the 5th place in the third one, the exact same position he’ll be starting off on Sunday. His performance was the reason for a double bottom and two breakouts!
While Grosjean was posting fast times at the Monaco racing circuit, his odds were trending downwards. Bettors and traders were backing the Lotus driver and that pushed the odds to lower lows. When the first breakout occurred at 9.0 odds, traders could have placed relatively safe bets on Grosjean to win Monaco GP and potentially make money when odds went lower. The downtrend and breakout were both verified several minutes later, when odds moved from 6.0 back up to 9 briefly before resuming downtrend. However when they failed to go any lower than 6.0, it was time to trade out.
The second breakout that occurred marked the trend’s reversal along with the double bottom formation. The chances to trade out were extremely limited as odds skyrocketed almost instantly, during the Q3 session I suppose. Grosjean was 0.3 seconds slower that Schumacher and that severely decreased his odds of winning the Monaco GP, placing him at the starting grid’s 5th position (now 4th due to Schumacher’s penalty).
It’s a long shot for Grosjean to actually win the next Formula 1 race in Monaco. Webber is the big favorite at the moment, followed by Nico Rosberg and Lewis Hamilton. Yet Grosjean’s betting graph at Betfair exchange was the only one I could apply [intlink id=”165″ type=”category”]technical analysis[/intlink] on that in fact makes any sense. Comparing with sports trading on Eurovision last night and Formula 1 is like comparing apples with oranges. 2 million Euros were traded hours before Eurovision began last night, while less than 300K euros have already been matched for F1 Monaco’s winner. Maybe sports traders will be more active in Formula 1 betting today. Are you one of them?