Everyone who is into sports betting, is aiming to make money in the end. The amount of money they are going to make depends on the number of bets, the money they are risking per bet and their edge. Edge is hard to be found in the beginning and can be more accurately calculated later on while betting. Yet, the gambler shouldn’t risk real money right from the start, since edge can be calculated by paper-betting; that is tracking their betting results on paper or in a spreadsheet. Finally, these 3 factors will determine just how much money they are going to make in sports betting.
Sports bettors often discuss about the possible long term profitability in sports betting and the prospect of living off sports betting. If you yourself are wondering of the profit you can achieve in sports betting, all you have to do is a couple of simple calculations.
The first and most difficult calculation is finding your edge against the market
That market is either the online bookmaker or other bettors like in a betting exchange. You should aim at seeking for value betting opportunities, which guarantee long term success. Value betting is betting on odds that are higher than the true probability of the event’s outcome. For instance, if you are betting on a game’s result at 2.00 (decimal odds), you need to be correct more often than 55%. Therefore the team’s probability to win should be at least 55%. If you have the ability to discover those opportunities, it’s only a matter of time until you can figure out just how much value you can extract from the market.
Practice is important at this point. The sports bettor has to bet with virtual money, so that they can confirm their win rate after an adequate sample of sports bets (say 200 bets) and eventually find out their edge. Thus, I would recommend writing down your bets and keeping track of your performance, by betting the same exact amount at each selection. That is known as flat betting.
Assumingly a sports bettor submitted 100 bets of 10 euros each during last month and ended up with 50 euros profit. They can easily now calculate their edge at 5%, by dividing their profit (50 euros) by the total betting stake (1,000 euros).
Calculating average stake size per bet
So, the sports bettor applies the same betting system on every bet they are placing, giving them an edge of 5%. Determining how much money they are going to make in sports betting depends now only on the amount of money they are going to risk per bet. Whether they bet the same amount or not, there will be an average stake size in the end.
By betting 10 euros per bet on average, the expected profit is 50 euros as I described. Obviously no one can live off that kind of profit. Yet, that profit is a huge step in sports betting, given only a few gamblers are able to make money in sports betting in the long run.
In order to make a living from sports betting, such as winning at least 1,000 euros per month, sports bettors must either:
- increase their total betting stake or,
- increase their edge.
5% is a respectable figure for the edge and they should be satisfied if they can achieve that kind of an edge long term. Thus, they have to increase their betting volume, either by increasing their number of bets or their stake size.
Increasing the number of bets
To win a thousand euros per month from betting on sports with 5% edge, gamblers have to place bets valued at 20,000 euros total. That is 100 bets of 200 euros each or 1,000 bets of 20 euros each.
Depending on the time you have at your disposal for sports betting, money management will dictate if you should increase the number of bets or the stake size. Nevertheless, making money in sports betting is by no means easy money.