Since my recent Eurovision post, some betting trends accelerated but others changed direction completely. Even Norway, the odds of which were shortening two weeks ago, is now no more than a third favorite to win the song contest! It is up to Armenia to prove gamblers right.
One of the biggest upsets in the betting market of Eurovision 2014 until now is unquestionably Norway. Traders and bettors pushed the odds as low as 3.25. Those unfortunate gamblers are now looking Norway odds in dismay, as the odds furiously drift to 15.0 unchallenged.
Other notable odds that betrayed backers are those of Azerbaijan and Romania. You can bet on those countries to win Eurovision this year and hope for a miracle and a big reward. Yet, for some gamblers your reward will be almost ten-fold of the reward they are getting, having bet at 6.00 or 8.00 respectively.
Germany and Russia’s odds show similar betting trends, although I do not think they have upset the market. That is due to the lack of a downtrend initially. Of course, I feel sorry for those people risking their money on these longshots. They are now certainly outside gamblers’ radar and unless breaking favourable news hit the market, they probably do not stand a chance.
On the other hand, last year’s winner, Denmark, has seen an influx of backers recently. Surely, the double-digit odds do not allow optimistic thoughts, yet the recent decline is noteworthy. In case Denmark’s betting odds to win Eurovision 2014 fall below the support level of 15 or 10, you will have every reason to follow the trend. Why do Denmark’s odds drop? Maybe it is due to Denmark being the host. And I am betting you all know the positive impact of the ‘home’ factor in football games!
Meanwhile, Armenia is cruising to the top of the betting tables. About 30% of Eurovision betting volume has been traded on Armenia according to the info provided by the betting exchange, Betfair. Now, imagine you had backed Armenia to win in Copenhagen at odds as high as 15 or 20. You could already secure a profit by laying at 2.00 odds nowadays. This sort of action is known as ‘cash out’ at Betfair and you can learn more about sports trading in my financial blog.
This decline of Armenia’s odds has a huge impact on other countries’ odds inevitably. Most odds, such in the case of Greece, Spain and Montenegro, have skyrocketed, as gamblers focus on the top 5 countries.
Still, Armenia’s chance to win Eurovision 2014 cannot reach 100% before the final. In betting terms, the odds cannot drop as low as 1.01. Do you think the established trend will prevail and where do you think the decline will meet resistance? Are you betting on your home country to win Eurovision in May? Let us know in the comments below.