My research in online betting always begins with odds movements. Today it was the first time I noticed a significant movement in a betting market far away from me: the New York vs Chicago Fire football game for the American MLS. New York is the unquestionable favorite, yet bettors do not think that bookmakers have priced the market correctly. That is why they are betting on the underdog and have impressively moved the odds.
I am going to talk in decimal odds terms here, thus if you are reading this post from across the Atlantic, you might want to refresh your memory and check out how to convert US-styled money lines to decimal odds (European odds).
So, New York’s odds have drifted from 1.50 up to 1.70. Some bookmakers have gone even higher, luring gamblers to bet on NY Red Bulls at 1.80. Given that betting markets always find balance quickly, Chicago Fire’s odds have shortened considerably, according to BetExplorer.com.
An image is a thousand words, so let’s see the odds charts, presented by OddsChecker.com. Here the odds movements from major online bookmakers are plotted for a better understanding of the betting action so far on the US league game.
Nonetheless, the conclusion is the same; home odds are drifting. Bettors did not consider the initial odds as fair odds. Or news had a serious impact on the specific betting market.
Whatever the reason of this occurrence, the explanation will lead us to bet accordingly, since moving odds usually hide value. And we need value, if we want to be profitable in online betting.
How do you explain this odds movement?
- It was a fair market initially and we should value bet on the favorite team now.
- Bettors have taken all the available value offered by the bad-priced initial odds. The fair market now allows only the bookmaker to profit.
- While initial odds were wrongly set, the market is still not fair. The odds will continue trending until kick-off time, thus we should follow the trend and bet on the underdog.
Once upon a time I would swear on a trend-following strategy. Nowadays, I have my doubts, after reading a couple of studies. For the time being, I’ll let you decide on your own, until I talk of my recent findings.
So, what will it be? Will you trust other bettors and go for a Chicago win, or are you betting on the tempting New York odds? Let me know in the comments below.