If a betting system is created in a very simple way, it doesn’t necessarily mean that it will not be profitable. Far from it, actually! Simple betting systems work miracles compared to sophisticated algorithms and knotty systems. Yet, we tend to avoid investing in simplicity.
As players, we sometimes try to incorporate dozens of filters in our betting systems. Plentiful criteria help us to sort out games we think are valueable. We keep adding new ones, until the finalized version of our betting system is so cramped, that it makes so difficult to use. Not only we waste time and effort while creating it, but also while trying to collect data and keeping an up to date database on a regular basis.
Frequently, we forget that we seek a simple sports betting system which will, first of all, be useful to us and not drive us crazy! When was it the last time you didn’t bother updating the final scores and stats in your spreadsheet, eagerly anticipating the next bet selections recommended by your system? I bet it was a long time ago, back when you built your very first betting system. Wasn’t that easier?
As a result, many systems end up useless, simply because they are too complicated and they need too much data to work. Not because they have failed us in the long run.
A simple betting system with just one criterion!
And believe it or not, that criterion can also be… random!
Say, you hear of a successful football betting system that suggests betting on the draw, whenever there is rain forecast. Would you doubt the effectiveness of this system only because of its simplicity? One and only one criterion could not be enough in order for us to overpower the skillful bookmakers! Isn’t that what you think?
Compare tennis with football data for a moment. Even with only two players competing in tennis, a lot of you find it difficult to create a profitable tennis betting system. Football games would be 10 times harder to predict with now 22 players running up and down on the pitch. So, how would just one filter about the…weather be sufficient for us to win?
Yet, I decided on this random criterion to choose a football game to bet on. Who say that it is not valid for football predictions? Do you question its profitability? We just have to select 200-300 football games, during which it rained. Then, by writing down the results and odds for draw, the answer would be in front of us, whether such a simple betting system would make us money.
Since nobody, most probably, has done such a thing, who could be so sure as to reject a simple betting system like that?
Why simple betting systems are not so popular?
The rejection of the simple betting systems mainly has to do with betting systems, which are being marketed as systems with high chances of winning. Known as black box systems, they avoid revealing the exact method and logic used inside the system. The player buys a betting system online and simply follow the tips suggested by the system.
In fact, the bettor becomes a subscriber to the system’s mailing list most of the times, in order to gain access to its’ tips that will hopefully lead him to profit. Subconsciously, the player assumes that the system’s creator is an extremely smart human, who has spent endless hours in building and studying sports betting systems. The bettor feels he saved himself from all this effort.
Additionally, they are granted access to an advertised secret system that only selected few know of and even fewer win.
Therefore, this betting system could not possibly be something so simple, like the system mentioned before, could it? For sure, the predictions must derive from a huge database with endless lines and columns in a spreadsheet. This data mining must be performed by experts sent out to dozens of stadiums around the world. Their only goal: to update the database with the latest news.
That’s what you are paying for when you buy such a betting system. At least, you’ve convinced yourself of that.
There comes a time though, that you need to build your own betting system. Like a naive copycat, your fresh betting system is now based on complication, over-optimization and curve-fitting. You neglect factors such as ease of use and of course, profitability in the long run (no, 100 bets do not constitute an adequate sample).
Remember this: the complication of a system isn’t usually proportional to its profitability. So, let us not get carried away by this bad habit of endlessly adding new criteria to the, once, simple betting system, before we have proof that, even with the simplest of filters it does not actually show profit. Less is more!