This article was written for another media on June, 15, but it never went public. Charts and odds may have changed.
Roland Garros is already history and tennis fans are preparing for the next Grand Slam at Wimbledon. Sports bettors though have already placed their tennis bets, despite we are still 2 weeks before the event’s official start date. In fact, betting odds have been moving up and down in the “Winner” market by now as a result of what happened in Paris!
Is there really a correlation between results of the previous tennis tournament and the upcoming one? It seems so.
Let’s start the analysis with the Men’s singles.
Roland Garros’ finalists are looking good for Wimbledon
Both Wawrinka’s and Djokovic’s odds for winning the next Grand Slam are shortening. And while that is expected for a big favorite such as Djokovic, Wawrinka’s surprising title win in France certainly convinced bettors to wager on him. That explains the recent drop of his odds to win Wimbledon, shown at the far right on the chart.
Meanwhile, gamblers continue betting heavily on Djokovic. Shortening odds for the favorite is a known fact in gambling though; there is no surprise here. This trend is evident in all kind of betting markets. The only time that’s not the case would be if Djokovic performed poorly in the French Open. Despite the apparent fatigue of the Serbian due to the exhausting semi-final with Murray, his odds to win Wimbledon has been shortening down to 2.00.
Murray’s odds are also on a downfall. Murray, the winner of Wimbledon in 2013, is expected to perform well once again, judging by the chart below. As he has already demonstrated a preference for the grass courts, bettors only needed a good performance in Paris as a proof of his good condition to risk their money on him. And they got it.
Speaking of poor performance, Rafael Nadal’s name comes to mind. The Spaniard lost to Djokovic in the French quarterfinals and didn’t extend his outstanding record in Roland Garros. What’s though disturbing is that he lost straight sets, really fighting back on just the first one (7-5). Djokovic wasn’t in trouble in the next two sets, as the score indicates (6-3, 6-1). This is certainly the reason behind the drifting odds of Nadal to win Wimbledon, presented in the next chart.
Can Safarova make it to Women’s singles back-to-back final?
The finalist in Roland Garros Women’s singles could have won the title, but eventually lost to S. Williams (2-1).
Her surprising performance though got the bettors’ attention, who have pushed her odds to win Wimbledon down to 18.0! And while those odds might seem like a longshot, just consider the fact that the opening odds for Safarova were as high as 100.0 at some sportsbooks! By getting advantage of the cash-out option that several bookmakers offer nowadays, bettors may now take profits two weeks before the tournament begins!
In the meantime, Serena Williams poses as the favorite for Wimbledon Women’s singles. Again, no surprise there, much like Djokovic. Given she was crowned the Roland Garros champion a week ago, bettors have no doubts of her performance. While her odds have shortened mildly, an upset at the French Open would have resulted to a much more wild movement to the opposite direction. After all, didn’t that happen with Nadal’s odds?
Finally, let’s take a look at Bacsinszky’s odds to come out as a winner in four weeks. Why Bacsinszky, I hear you ask! Bacsinszky, currently at No. 23 in the charts, reached the French semifinals and lost to S. Williams. That’s a great achievement for a tennis player in such a competitive and high-profile tournament. If you are still doubtful, take a look at the following chart that shows the Swiss player’s odds for the upcoming Grand Slam. Imagine how strong the downtrend would have been, if she had beaten Williams to reach the final!
I am sure you’ll agree there’s obvious correlation between past results and market’s behavior on betting odds for the upcoming events. Next time you spot an underdog performing well in a tennis tournament and reaching the late stages of the tour, jump into the betting market of the next tournament. You might want to back that player and cash out days before the tournament even starts! Besides, the risk is substantially smaller compared to betting during a live event.