US election enjoys yet another Super Tuesday today. This time the hot states are primarily Florida and Ohio for the Republicans, as Trump’s rivals are looking for a way to slow down his march. In the meantime, after pulling off an upset at Michigan, Sanders will be looking for a momentum’s build up.
What can we predict based on the betting odds’ behavior, both for the primaries and nomination battles?
For this analysis, I’ll be using the implied chance charts instead of the odds graphs, simply because it makes Trump’s analysis easier due to his odds’ range. Don’t forget that sportsbooks had considered him a huge underdog in the beginning of the race. Furthermore, Clinton’s short odds don’t allow for much meaningful analysis on odds’ charts.
These charts, of course, directly correspond to the actual betting odds. Thus it’s the same as following up on the odds and market’s dynamics.
Trump’s chances to win the nomination are on an uptrend currently. Having retraced from the all-time high (80%) to almost 50% (even odds), his odds are shortening once again. A win in Florida, as most analysts expect, would most likely catapult his chances to the previous high. Judging by the chart on the right, analysts are spot on and Rubio producing an upset in Florida seems highly improbable.
How should we bet this?
Well, clearly the money right now is on Trump. A great point to back him for the nomination would have been the one when the odds retraced a couple of weeks ago (orange line). Now, with the uptrend shooting for the next new high, I’d elect to back him at any price really. Especially if that implies a chance below the previous high (odds higher than -400). Our exit strategy would be to lay back and accept a loss, in case his odds drift above even.
Also, note how the uptrend has accelerated on the previous chart. Just compare the slope of those blue trend lines.
Cruz, on the other hand, needs to win the Missouri primary, if he wants to keep in touch with the frontrunner. By the looks of the chart below, he may have trouble doing that, given the decline of the implied probability. Hopefully for him, the line will bounce off the support at 40% and go up by the end of the day. Otherwise, I foresee a break down at the support level (12.5%) on the left chart. That will inevitably lead to higher odds and undoubtedly a shock to his supports.
At this time, I wouldn’t back Cruz. Even if he wins Missouri, his chance won’t skyrocket, given it’s his state, after all. The risk of losing the primary though is quite big, hence it all comes down to the common risk/reward debate.
Democratic primaries are looking a bit more fascinating, given that the frontrunner, Clinton, is seriously contested by Sanders at half of those today. In fact, she may struggle to win the most popular primaries betting-wise by the looks of it: Illinois, Ohio and Missouri.
Remember, a decline of the implied chance % means drifting odds.
Although favored initially by sportsbooks, gambling markets are turning against her, as the charts above show. Punters are backing Sanders more than Clinton at those states, which may actually impact the nomination market, shown below.
In all honesty, I doubt it. See that blue trend line on Clinton’s chart? As long as Clinton’s chance is hovering above that, I’d be crazy not to pick Clinton for the nomination. At the same time, now seems a great time to lay back (bet against) Sanders. Following the strong decline, his chance’s line pulled back to the previous support – now resistance – at 12.5%. I expect it to resume trending south towards previous low at 3%, unless he produces yet another upset!