Rafael Nadal is the big favorite to win the 2012 Roland Garros tournament and Novak Djokovic’ odds are predicted to continue drifting to higher prices. Since the popularity of yesterday’s post regarding sports trading Formula 1 odds, I promised – in Twitter – that I’d be discussing about the 2012 French Open soon. So, in less than 24 hours we are taking a closer look at the tennis [intlink id=”49″ type=”category”]betting graphs[/intlink] of the betting exchange, Betfair, to find out if technical analysis can also predict the Roland Garros tournament winner. This time there are just 3 graphs compared to Formula 1’s 6 graphs, as most of the money is traded on the 3 big favorites, including Roger Federer.
1. Rafael Nadal: Safe downtrend
Nadal’s odds developed a downtrend right from the start, printing a high at 2.60 and moving down to 1.60 since then. New lows and minor pullbacks indicate a strong and rather safe for trading downtrend. Nadal’s betting odds prove the market’s general trend of shortening favorite’s odds in long term betting markets. Trading Nadal in 2012 French Open profitably would be a fine example of “trend is your friend” saying. Don’t go against the trend, unless there are strong signals of a reversal, like a Double Bottom, a trendline breakout and lower lows/higher highs. Here’s how I successfully traded Nadal’s odds in 2011 French Open!
2. Novak Djokovic: Strong Uptrend – Double Top?
The betting odds’ graph of Djokovic clearly shows a developing uptrend. However the double top pattern at 5.00 is a reversal signal. I wouldn’t trade long – that is lay now, back at higher prices – unless the resistance level is overcome. In case of a breakout after a Double Top, the odds are expected to rise quicker due to the importance of the double top formation. Setting a tight stop loss is recommended as there’s always the danger of a fake breakout, leading to a fierce reversal.
3. Roger Federer: Sideways Trading
Federer is definitely not the favorite to win 2012 French Open tennis tournament. At least until the support level at 10.0 is broken. The same can happen with the resistance level at 15.0 on the Betfair graph. I would either look to lay at 10.0 or back at 15.0 if I would be trading inside the sideways channel. Since we are talking about sports betting – and not stock trading – these levels are doomed to be penetrated, therefore I would wait for a breakout before I risk any money on Federer. Also I’d rather see a breakout below 10.0 rather than longer than 15.0 odds.
