When we bet online, we must constantly do an odds comparison between various bookmakers and betting exchanges, in order to maximize our anticipated profit. Evaluating the listed odds on several online bookmakers involves checking each company separately, or using the service of websites that offer odds comparison for free, like OddsChecker.
When we bet on the highest odds available online every time, we increase our betting system’s chances to make money!
Taking as example a hypothetical betting system that we have studied in football betting, we will show how much of a difference makes when we accurately compare the odds offered by online bookmakers.
The Betting System: Calculating the true odds
Suppose that, in accordance to our betting system, we come up with bets on various teams with a winning probability of 60 percent. Our system, for the sake of the example, continuously brings bets with the same probability of 60 percent. Surely, an extreme scenario, but it will help us to better understand the importance of odds comparison.
In total, during a month our system has provided 100 matches with 60 percent probability of the home team winning the match. Moreover, this probability is verified and confirmed by actual results. Consequently, our system is proven correct, accurately defining the value of true odds.
Electing to bet on average odds, refusing to do an odds comparison
A bettor has only an account at a single bookmaker, which is known for its relatively low odds. However, being comfortable with this particular bookmaker, he is not likely to switch to another bookmaker since he feels his money is secure. Although, the odds offered by the bookmaker are low to his knowledge, he does not believe that this is a good reason switching bookmakers.
As a result, he continues losing money.
Say, this bookmaker offers football games on which the player continuously bets at the same odds of 1.50. Since the calculated probability has been verified, the player would win the bet in 60 out of 100 matches. By risking €10 on every bet, in total, he should win €300 on matches that the home team will actually win the game, while he will lose €400 on the remaining 40 matches.
So, while the betting system estimates accurately the true odds, at the end of the day the bettor still loses money!
He should blame no one but himself for his obsession to bet on low odds.
How astute gamblers will take advantage of this betting system
Suppose the same system falls into the hands of a more forward thinking player, who is doing a market search comparing the odds before he bets. Still, even this gambler won’t bet on the highest odds.
This particular player finds the odds of the above games at 1.75.
As a result, in 60 matches he wins €450 and, of course, still loses €400 to the remaining 40 matches, reaping profit of €50 because of the more favorable odds. While the former player loses the equivalent of 10 bets out of 100, the latter wins the equivalent of 5 bets out of 100. The difference is so huge, that we are now talking about a winning betting system! Just by doing a plain odds comparison!
Imagine the same player following the same system for years, gaining confidence, while his capital is surging. After a while, he decides to bet €1000 on each bet resulting to profit of €5,000 each month.
A third player is even more fastidious seeking higher odds on each bet. As he is also a successful player he bets €1,000 per match right from the start, fully acknowledging the system’s potential. He bets at odds of 1.80, instead of 1.50 for the first player and 1.75 for the second.
How much difference in winnings such a small difference on the betting odds could make?
Following the appropriate calculations, the player earns €8,000 each month, according to the predictions of the exact same system. We are talking about 60 percent more profit!
All he had to do was to bet on somewhat higher odds (just 6.6 percent more) in order to enjoy 60 percent more profit! Whopping difference!
The point in odds comparison is to understand the vast difference between the odds, as little as may seem. If you find odds at 1.75 at most bookmakers and 1.80 at some other reputable betting companies or exchanges, would you open a new account to take advantage of the highest odds?
If your answer is no, then you should revise your view and start doing odds comparisons more frequently. Otherwise, you would need to significantly improve the success rate of your forecasts (that 60 percent we talked about in the beginning) to offset the profit another player enjoys by simply betting on 0.05 higher odds!