The football betting tips and the efficiency of the betting system shown below are based on the Elo ratings, a ranking system that is used mainly in chess games. The betting system’s testing period began on August 1st, 2012. A flat staking plan is followed in order to reach safe conclusions and be able to analyze the results’ data. Upon completion, a more sophisticated staking plan such as Kelly criterion is recommended to maximize profit.
The Elo ratings betting system wouldn’t exist if it weren’t Clubelo.com, a website presenting the Elo ratings of all football clubs and popular European Championships and Cups. Here are 4 articles you should study to fully comprehend the football betting system:
- Elo formula in football games
- The Home field advantage
- Long term decline of Home advantage
- Improving prediction with Poisson distribution
Depending on my free time, betting tips of the Elo ratings system and its efficiency graph will be published on a daily basis. The efficiency graph will also include the Expected Value line that is calculated by the probabilities available at the Clubelo website. The betting tips are strictly “back” bets for the time being, although there is theoretical value at “lay” bets as well. The decimal odds presented in the tables below are the highest bookmakers’ odds available at time of writing, and along with any other data they are collected during the morning (GMT+2) unless otherwise stated.
This presentation is mainly a study of the Elo ratings betting system’s efficiency and the performance of its tips. Betting according to this system should be avoided during the testing period. The website or the author are not responsible for any gambling losses the visitors might incur.
Football Betting Tips August 12, 2012
The coloring of the picks depends on the edge that is calculated based on the Elo ratings’ probabilities, by multiplying that probability by the odds and subtracting 1. For example, if Elo ratings calculate the theoretical probability at 55% and the highest available odds are 2.00, the edge is 10%. Obviously if there are higher odds available during the day, the theoretical edge will be even higher. 3 graphs are included below the tips, which represent the system’s performance depending on the selections one can make according to the theoretical edge.
Profit & Loss Graph August 12, 2012
The betting system’s performance if we bet all the picks of more than 1% theoretical edge.
The betting system’s performance if we bet all the picks of more than 10% theoretical edge.
The betting system’s performance if we bet all the picks of more than 50% theoretical edge.