Betting online involves both a probability that the bet is proved right and the anticipated return on money spent. At the end of the day, these two elements will indicate if we can profit from online betting.
If on the sound of the word probability you are surprised, you will discover that all bettors are counting on this, even if they do not realize it. As we will see next, any system followed in betting, actually calculates and selects probabilities and returns.
[quote type=”center”]The correct correlation between these two dictates the right choice among a number of bets.[/quote]
As regards the less popular case of the mathematical model, the calculation of the probability point is the outcome of strictly mathematical criteria.
The bettor uses some filters, which are the criteria for the calculation of probability, and usually rely on statistical models. Such a bettor is able to compute using the same identical manner the probability of every bet.
This is considered the most impersonal, devoid of human factor, betting method.
However, on exactly the opposite side, we can discuss about the sports bettors, who daily devote a lot of time before placing bets. During the process, they read a newspaper, visit sports blogs and forums, compare their previous bets and performance, and finally conclude on their bets, which they believe will bring a profit.
Usually, these players are not very much concerned about the return on their bet, although they avoid short odds, aiming at a satisfactory rewarding of their efforts.
However, even these gamblers, subconsciously, have set some probabilities on their bets. If they choose to bet online in favor of a team, they automatically acknowledge that the chance this team will win is bigger than losing, or bringing a tie. But, there are two problems in this case.
- The first problem is that there is no accurate calculation of probability. It may be 60 percent, or 70 percent. It is not known to the bettors themselves. They do not think of the actual value of probability; they simply end up in placing bets that they consider more likely to win. However, this lack of calculation will prove a handicap in the course of time, affecting their performance on sports betting.
- On the other hand, there is also the problem that when betting on sports events, the same criteria are not strictly followed. Definitely, if we are talking about the same bettor, the way of thinking will be the same as well, so, largely, more or less the same system is followed. However, the judgment of a sports bettor might be affected by several factors, like a losing streak of bets, the previous day’s big profit, a friend’s advice and anything else that could affect human psychology.
In both cases, the gamblers described above, are calculating consciously or subconsciously a percentage of chance. If this probability is converted to odds (e.g. 50% equates to 2.00, 25% to 4.00, and so on), then it becomes comparable with the odds offered by bookmakers.
If the latter is greater than the computed probability, then we talk about the case of value betting, a bet that favors the sports bettor, which is also the basis of a winning system in online betting. The frequency of finding such occurrences, the difference between odds and probability and the size of the bet, will strongly affect how much money a gambler could earn in sports betting.
So next time you bet, think of a probability before you look at the betting odds that you are offered and then do the comparison. It may lead to the difficult decision to not bet on your favorite match due to low reward, or even the more difficult one: to bet against your prediction, due to the attractive odds of the opposite bet!